NOVEMBER 7, 2008

 

Weekly Market Snapshot

Randy Carver
7473 Center Street | Mentor, OH 44060 | 440-974-0808
randy.carver@raymondjames.com

November 7, 2008

Market Commentary
by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 240,000 in October, a higher figure than expected, but not as bad as some had feared. However, figures for August and September were revised a net 179,000 lower. The unemployment rate jumped to 6.5% (it stood at 6.1% in September and at 4.8% a year ago). Payroll employment has fallen by 1.2 million since December last year. Approximately 10.1 million people are now unemployed, an increase of 2.8 million over the last 12 months.

There was more disheartening news. Unit motor vehicle sales sank further in October. The Federal Reserve’s survey of senior loan officers showed that banks were still tightening terms and standards for consumer and business loans over the three months ending in October. And the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indices fell sharply in October. The International Monetary Fund lowered its outlook for global growth. The Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank all lowered short-term interest rates.

Barack Obama, elected the 44th president of the United States, wasted no time in setting up a transition team. He will make the economy his top priority. The stock market, appearing to ignore the economic data, rallied on election day, but sold off afterward (even though the election outcome was not a surprise).

Next week, the economic calendar thins. The bond market will close early on Monday and remain closed through Tuesday, Veterans Day. Retail sales, to be reported Friday, are expected to be poor. Treasury has reintroduced the 3-year note (to be auctioned monthly).



Indices

 

Last

Last Week

YTD return %

DJIA

8695.79

9180.69

-34.44%

NASDAQ

1608.7

1698.52

-39.35%

S&P 500

904.88

951.28

-38.37%

MSCI EAFE

1239.64

1245.11

-44.99%

Russell 2000

495.84

514.18

-35.27%



Consumer Money Rates

 

Last

1-year ago

Prime Rate

4.00

7.50

Fed Funds

1.00

4.50

30-year mortgage

6.03

5.96



Currencies

 

Last

1-year ago

Dollars per British Pound

1.563

2.088

Dollars per Euro

1.272

1.456

Japanese Yen per Dollar

97.75

114.73

Canadian Dollars per Dollar

1.198

0.920

Mexican Peso per Dollar

13.05

10.70



Commodities

 

Last

1-year ago

Crude Oil

60.77

96.70

Gold

732.80

825.00



Bond Rates

 

Last

1-month ago

2-year treasury

1.32

1.59

10-year treasury

3.72

3.87

10-year municipal (TEY)

6.75

6.66



Treasury Yield Curve – 11/7/2008



S&P Sector Performance Charts – 11/7/2008



Economic Calendar

November 10

 — 

Treasury Note Auction – 3-year notes

November 11

 — 

Veterans Day (bond market closed)

November 12

 — 

Treasury Note Auction – 10-year notes

November 13

 — 

Trade Balance (September)
Treasury Bond Auction – 30-year bond

November 14

 — 

Import Prices (October)
Retail Sales (October)
Consumer Sentiment (mid-November)

December 16

 — 

FOMC meeting

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. Municipal bond interest is not subject to federal income tax but may be subject to AMT, state or local taxes. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments.

Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business November 6th 2008.

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© 2008 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA / SIPC.

 

 

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